Just In: Why Chiefs’ Patrick Mahomes is still an MVP favorite in Vegas: ‘We’re not that dumb…. See More

Jay Kornegay understands the numbers he’s about to share might seem silly without context.

Kornegay, Executive VP of the Westgate SuperBook Las Vegas, knows all about how Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes has performed this year, which includes:

So yeah, one look at Mahomes’ NFL MVP odds — from an oddsmaker at the world’s largest race and sportsbook at SuperBook — might not make much sense. Those facts are true about Mahomes, yet … he’s still third in MVP betting odds, behind only the Ravens’ Lamar Jackson and Bills’ Josh Allen. So, what’s going on here?

“You can’t just look at it like, ‘Right at this moment,’” Kornegay told The Star. “You’ve got to look at the potential of what he can bring to the table, and we all know that’s a lot.” As of this week, Jackson was the betting favorite to win NFL MVP at SuperBook at plus-225; in other words, if a bettor placed $100 on Jackson, that person would get their $100 back plus $225 more if Jackson wins the award. Allen is at plus-450, while Mahomes is plus-500.

And Kornegay is clear that those odds for Mahomes aren’t typical for a quarterback with his early production. “There’s a reason why he’s 5-to-1 (odds) — multiple reasons why he’s 5-to-1,” Kornegay said. “But one of the reasons is he’s so popular still, despite the below-average stats.” Kornegay says the sports gaming world loves winners, and almost no one has had recent success like these Chiefs with Mahomes.

That means they also accumulate a lot of betting tickets. Whether it’s for KC to win the Super Bowl or Mahomes to take MVP, Kornegay is used to seeing a volume of wagers on the Chiefs. “You’ve got to look at the brand name ‘Mahomes’ and consider what he’s done in past years, what he’s done in Super Bowls,” Kornegay said. “And we still have more than half the season left.”

This, Kornegay said, is why Mahomes’ MVP odds haven’t moved that much despite a subpar few weeks. He’s hit a level of play before that could earn him the award again — even in a season that hasn’t started well.

We haven’t read the whole book yet. We’re not even halfway there,” Kornegay said. “But we kind of know what the ending is, and he’s going to be right there on top of the mountain. Whether it’s with another ring or not, we know he and the Chiefs are going to be right at the top. And so there’s no reason for us to be creating a lot of liability (by changing Mahomes’ odds), based off stats only.”

Kornegay, a 2024 inductee in the Sports Betting Hall of Fame, is quick to admit that perception remains a significant part of what’s going on here. He uses the example of Falcons quarterback Kirk Cousins; if Cousins had started with six touchdowns and eight interceptions through six games, Kornegay would expect his MVP odds to be somewhere around 50-to-1, as he lacks the prestige that Mahomes currently has.

And even if Mahomes continues to have down stats in the next few weeks, Kornegay says it would take quite a bit for him to even get down to 10-to-1 in MVP chances.

We know that we’re going to get tickets on him no matter what,” Kornegay said. “And when it all comes down to it, he’s going to be right in the mix of MVP, because the team is doing well, they have a terrific chance of three-repeating and we know what he’s capable of:

It’s why Kornegay, personally, says there’s no way he’s counting out Mahomes to win the award this year. And why sportsbooks aren’t rushing to give bettors better odds — or a potentially bigger cashout — if they do choose to wager on Mahomes for MVP. “There’s just too much history, too much success that surrounds that name,” Kornegay said. “We’re not that dumb.”